Vietnam’s pangasius exports reached $2.2 billion in 2025 (up 8% year-on-year), and VASEP forecasts $2.1–2.3 billion for 2026. China is the top single market (~27% share), followed by the US, EU, and a fast-growing CPTPP bloc. Farm-gate prices and production costs have risen, pushing FOB prices upward. The biggest risks for 2026: US anti-dumping duties suppressing American demand, and tightening EU sustainability requirements. The biggest opportunity: shrinking global whitefish supply pushing buyers toward pangasius as a cost-effective alternative.
Statistics in this section are compiled from VASEP (Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers) reporting, January–March 2026.
Vietnam pangasius exports in 2026 — key statistics
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam’s pangasius export turnover reached nearly $2.2 billion in 2025 — an 8% increase over 2024 and the industry’s strongest year since the post-pandemic recovery began. This came against a backdrop of broader growth in Vietnam’s seafood sector: total seafood exports reached approximately $11.3 billion in 2025, up 13% year-on-year, with pangasius contributing roughly 18–20% of that total.
Frozen pangasius fillets remain overwhelmingly dominant in the product mix, accounting for around 98% of total export value. Processed and value-added pangasius products — breaded portions, ready-to-cook items, surimi-based goods — remain a small share of the total but are growing faster than the frozen fillet category, up roughly 13–19% year-on-year according to VASEP. This is a structural signal worth watching: the industry’s next phase of growth is expected to come from value-added processing rather than simply exporting more frozen fillets at the same margin.
Looking ahead, VASEP forecasts pangasius export turnover could reach approximately $2.3 billion in 2026, supported by tightening global whitefish supplies and improving demand in several key markets. Other industry sources, including the Vietnam Pangasius Association, project a slightly more conservative $2.1–2.3 billion range, representing growth of roughly 5% over 2025. The variance reflects genuine uncertainty around US trade policy and the pace of EU market recovery — both covered in more detail below.
VASEP reports figures in US dollar export value (FOB), not farm-gate or retail price. A rising export value can reflect either higher volume, higher unit price, or both — the sections below break down price and volume separately so you can assess which is driving the trend for your target market.
Pangasius FOB prices in 2026 — a buyer’s reference
Farm-gate prices in the Mekong Delta have risen meaningfully over the past year. In An Giang province — the heart of Vietnam’s premium pangasius farming corridor — raw fish prices reached 33,000–34,000 VND/kg in early 2026, notably higher than the same period in 2025. Production costs have risen in step: the cost to farm one kilogram of pangasius, previously around $1.00, now runs $1.20–$1.30, driven by higher feed, fuel, electricity, and veterinary costs. Feed alone now accounts for 65–70% of total production cost.
These upstream cost increases feed directly into FOB export pricing. The table below gives indicative price ranges by cut and trim level, based on current market conditions. See BAKACO’s full product range for detailed specifications on each format.
| Product | Trim level | Indicative FOB price (USD/kg) | Glazing basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Untrimmed fillet | Red meat & belly on | $2.00 – $2.40 | Typically 10–20% glaze |
| Semi-trimmed fillet | Red meat on, belly off | $2.30 – $2.70 | Typically 10–20% glaze |
| Well-trimmed fillet | Red meat & belly off | $2.80 – $3.50 | Typically 10% glaze (retail grade) |
| Skin-on fillet | Skin retained | $2.20 – $2.60 | Typically 15–20% glaze |
| Butterfly cut | Bone-in, skin-on | $2.10 – $2.50 | Per piece, weight-graded |
| Pangasius cube / strips | Bulk IQF | $2.00 – $2.30 | Per kg, bulk pack |
| Prices vary by size grade, order volume, and current market conditions — request a firm quote for your specification → | |||
Indicative ranges reflect general market conditions as of Q3 2026 and are not a quotation. FOB Ho Chi Minh City or Can Tho. Contact BAKACO’s export team for current firm pricing based on your specification, volume, and delivery terms.
The price trend over time
FOB prices for standard-grade pangasius fillets have followed a gradual upward trajectory since 2022, largely tracking rising input costs rather than demand-side pressure. Buyers who locked in longer-term supply agreements in 2023–2024 have generally seen more price stability than spot-market buyers entering in 2025–2026.
| Year | Indicative well-trimmed FOB range (USD/kg) | Primary driver |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.20 – $2.70 | Post-pandemic demand recovery |
| 2023 | $2.10 – $2.60 | Global demand slowdown, oversupply |
| 2024 | $2.40 – $2.90 | Recovery begins, farm-gate stabilizing |
| 2025 | $2.60 – $3.20 | Rising production costs, tightening supply |
| 2026 (current) | $2.80 – $3.50 | Continued cost inflation, global whitefish shortage |
For a detailed breakdown of the current quarter’s pricing environment, see our Q3 2026 pangasius price update →
Where Vietnam’s pangasius goes — top markets in 2026
Vietnam exports pangasius to more than 140 countries, but export value is heavily concentrated in a handful of markets. The chart below shows 2025 export value by market, based on VASEP full-year reporting.
China — the largest single market
China remained the largest single destination for Vietnamese pangasius throughout 2025, reaching nearly $560 million for the year — around 27% of total export value. Growth has been consistent: December 2025 exports to China surged 25% year-on-year to reach $60 million for the month alone, driven by strong Lunar New Year restocking demand. Whole pangasius and frozen fillets both perform well in this market, and the trade lane benefits from short transit times (5–8 days) compared to Western markets.
United States — under tariff pressure
The US market told a different story in 2025. Exports grew steadily through the first half of the year — up 8–23% year-on-year in various months — but declined sharply after a 20% reciprocal tariff took effect from August 1, 2025. November 2025 US exports fell 23% year-on-year to $20 million, and VASEP expects this pressure to continue into 2026. See the trade policy section below for details on how this affects buyer economics.
European Union — steady but uneven
EU imports totaled approximately $175 million in 2025, essentially flat year-on-year (down about 1%). The aggregate figure masks divergent national trends: the Netherlands and Germany — traditionally the largest EU importers — both declined (down 18% and 20% respectively in some months), while Spain, Belgium, Italy, and France posted growth. This suggests a gradual shift in where EU demand is concentrated, likely linked to retail contract cycles and sustainability certification requirements in the larger northern European markets.
CPTPP bloc — the standout performer
Markets within the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership have emerged as VASEP’s most consistently cited “bright spot.” Exports to CPTPP markets grew 30–34% year-on-year through 2025, led by the UK, Mexico, Japan, Malaysia, and Canada — all benefiting from preferential tariff access and relatively stable demand. Mexico in particular posted standout growth, with exports up 50% year-on-year in some months.
Brazil — the fastest-growing market
Brazil recorded the strongest growth rate of any major pangasius market in 2025: exports reached $176 million for the year, up 36% year-on-year, with December alone up 65%. Brazilian demand is currently concentrated in frozen fillets, and industry analysts view it as a market with continued room for expansion given the country’s growing whitefish consumption and relatively limited domestic aquaculture capacity for comparable species.
For a deeper look at any of these markets, see: China pangasius market deep-dive →, EU demand analysis →, and LATAM and Brazil opportunity →
Market risk matrix
| Market | 2025 trajectory | Main risk factor | 2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ↑ Growing steadily | Low demand-side risk | Continued growth expected |
| United States | ↓ Declining since Aug 2025 | High — ADD + reciprocal tariff | Pressure likely to persist |
| European Union | → Flat, uneven by country | Medium — sustainability compliance cost | Gradual, EVFTA-dependent recovery |
| CPTPP bloc | ↑ Strong growth | Low risk, tariff-advantaged | Continued strength expected |
| Brazil | ↑ Fastest-growing | Low, though price-sensitive | Room for further expansion |
| Middle East | ↑ Growing (Egypt +33%) | Low, Halal-certification dependent | Positive, certification-gated growth |
Global demand drivers for 2026
Three structural forces are shaping pangasius demand heading into 2026 — each with direct implications for how buyers should approach sourcing strategy this year.
1. Tightening global whitefish supply
Total global whitefish production is forecast to reach just over 6.5 million tonnes in 2026 — down approximately 145,000 tonnes compared to 2025. Quota constraints on wild-caught species like cod and pollock in the North Atlantic and Bering Sea are pushing buyers in the EU and North America to look for cost-effective, reliably supplied alternatives. Pangasius — farmed year-round with no closed season — is well positioned to capture some of this displaced demand, provided quality and certification standards are met.
2. Growth in value-added processing
Deep-processed pangasius products (HS16 code — breaded, marinated, ready-to-cook formats) reached $30 million in export value in the first seven months of 2025 alone, up 41% year-on-year — a far faster growth rate than the frozen fillet category overall. VASEP has explicitly framed value-added processing as the industry’s next growth frontier, since it commands better margins and reduces exposure to commodity price competition. Buyers exploring private-label or food-service-ready formats have an opportunity to work with exporters investing early in this capability.
3. Sustainability certification becoming a market prerequisite
VASEP has recommended that exporters strengthen sustainability certifications (ASC, BAP, and similar) as a competitive requirement rather than a differentiator — particularly for EU buyers, where “greening” requirements around emissions reporting, energy efficiency, and traceability are becoming standard procurement criteria, not optional extras. Buyers sourcing for EU retail in particular should expect certification requirements to tighten further through 2026–2030.
Supply outlook — Mekong Delta production in 2026
Vietnam’s pangasius farming is concentrated in the Mekong Delta, with An Giang, Dong Thap, Can Tho, and Vinh Long provinces accounting for the large majority of national output. Total farming area reached over 5,500 hectares in 2025, with production of 1.74 million tonnes — 6% above the government’s planning target for the year.
Supply risks to watch
- Disease outbreaks linked to climate change and deteriorating water quality in upstream provinces
- Rising production costs — feed, fuel, electricity, and medicine costs have all increased
- Government warnings against uncontrolled farming expansion, to avoid an oversupply-driven price collapse
- Saltwater intrusion affecting water quality in some farming areas during dry season
Positive supply signals
- Improved fish fry quality — supporting better survival rates and yields
- Higher proportion of harvests meeting export-preferred weight ranges
- Feed costs stabilized in the second half of 2025 after several volatile years
- Farm-gate prices recovering, restoring profitability for medium-scale farmers
Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has signaled a longer-term shift in industry strategy: rather than continuing to compete purely on farmed volume and low prices, the stated direction for 2026–2030 is toward higher-value, more sustainable production — including digital traceability systems and “food carbon” emissions measurement, both increasingly required by EU buyers.
BAKACO’s own sourcing is based in An Giang province — part of the premium farming corridor identified above — giving direct visibility into farm-level conditions rather than relying on aggregated commodity supply. Learn more about BAKACO’s sourcing and facilities →
Trade policy and tariff risks for 2026
A roughly 20% reciprocal tariff took effect on Vietnamese seafood imports to the US from August 1, 2025, layering on top of exporter-specific anti-dumping duties (ADD) that have applied to Vietnamese pangasius fillets since 2003. The combined effect has significantly reduced Vietnamese pangasius’s price competitiveness in the US — exports fell 23% year-on-year in November 2025 alone, and VASEP expects this pressure to continue through 2026. US buyers should verify the specific ADD rate assigned to their chosen exporter before placing an order, as rates vary meaningfully between companies. See our import documentation guide for details on checking current rates.
The EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement gives pangasius fillets a staged tariff reduction phasing toward 0%, compared to a standard MFN rate of roughly 9%, provided the shipment carries a valid EUR.1 certificate of origin. Uptake of this preference remains lower than its potential — many EU buyers are still not systematically requesting EUR.1 documentation from their suppliers. Buyers who ensure their supplier correctly documents origin can meaningfully reduce landed cost relative to non-preferential competitors.
Beyond these two headline issues, VASEP has consistently urged Vietnamese exporters to reduce reliance on any single market by diversifying toward CPTPP, ASEAN, and Middle East destinations — all of which benefit from more favorable or stable tariff treatment than the US currently offers. For buyers, this translates into a genuine diversification of supply-side competition: exporters focused on growth markets may offer more flexible terms than those still primarily oriented toward a shrinking US order book.
Frequently asked questions
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Which countries import the most Vietnamese pangasius?
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